Interest Rates

Why the Debt Ceiling Debate Matters

US Congressional hardliners have been threatening not to raise the debt limit again.  They may not understand how central US Treasury securities are to the US and global monetary and banking system.  Dr. Tiemann explains the importance of raising the debt ceiling and the catastrophic consequences that could result from a failure by Congress to act in […]

Growth in the Age of Cheap Capital

This note helps readers understand how corporate management thinks about and makes deliberate choices about their capital structure, depending upon market conditions, discount rates, level of employment in the economy and other factors. A refresher on Modigliani and Miller, and assessment of why companies appear to be doing better yet unemployment remains high.

It Isn’t a Forecast

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to both maintain price stability and reasonably full employment at the same time. This differs from that of its counterparts in other countries, which focus primarily on fighting inflation. Because of this, the Fed's monetary action are often overtly counter-cyclical, raising or lowering interest rates or tightening or loosening money […]

The Launch of the QE 2

In Nov. 2010, the Fed launched a second round of quantitative easing, dubbed the “QE2”. The action raised many questions and this note explores the possible impacts of this action on the economy. It continues the discussion started in the prior note-addressing the Government’s fiscal policies-and focuses this time on the Government’s monetary policy.

The Borrower of Last Resort

Discusses why governments need private savings to maintain stimulative fiscal policies and why channeling those savings into investments is best. Review of the Keynes paradox of thrift, the need to reduce deficits but also how that can also be a recipe for disaster. Describes how the Feds can avoid igniting inflation and why government spending and borrowing […]

Liquidity and the Markets

Explains how illiquid portfolios played a role in the violent plunge in global equity markets in the recent past, why prudent use of liquidity is an element that investors can use to their advantage in generating returns and why understanding liquidity can also help us to interpret market activity.

Lessons from History

 Discusses the philosophical framework of the Obama Administrations' stimulus plan and places it into an historical context, discussing its Keynesian economic impact and Hamiltonian design, revealing the coherence and consistency of the ideas behind it.

It’s a New Year — Now What?

Increases in the market risk premium analyzed, with assessment of implications for individual investment strategies relative to risk tolerance and investment timeframes, as well as risks to corporations with and without access to capital, in their abilities to prosper and produce superior returns.

Advancing the State of the Investment Art

Reflections on the power of the dialectic within the academic approach for diagnosing and solving the vexing issues relating to investing for individuals. Further reinforcement for upholding the principle of working to best solve the specific individual needs of each investment client, rather than contorting clients’ portfolios to fit into existing products.

A Pyramid of Little Golden Crumbs

A "no-holds-barred" review of the cast of unregulated characters on wall street who stand to earn fees on the transactions relating to home purchases and mortages by individuals, regardless of the ability of the homeowner to pay or the merit, quality or appropriateness of the issuance of the mortgage.